If this is the first time you have stumbled across this blog, this is a place where we get to escape the madness of the Spring Carnival, AFL or Cricket seasons and talk about one of our passions – NFL! We pick two NFL games and go out on a limb with a couple of value bets to hopefully maximize your returns when betting on the NFL. We have had reasonable success this year, and hopefully we can help you pick a winner!

THE CLASH OF THE ROUND HITS CHI-TOWN

Testament to how well both Houston and Chicago are playing is the fact that the Texans and Bears are the only two teams who sit in the top 5 for point scoring in both offense and defense.

These two sides, one the Super Bowl favourite, and the other surprisingly still available for $11, clash in what is just the third time in the last 20 years that two teams with one or fewer losses have met after Week 8.

The build up to this game has focused primarily on the battle for defensive player of the year, with Charles Tillman (Bears) and J.J Watt (Texans) both having outstanding seasons for their respective teams. Despite that, we still see some points being scored here.

Bears WR Brandon Marshall is second in the NFL with 797 receiving yards, and he has at least five receptions in every game this season bar one. CB Johnathan Joseph and his teammates will have his hands full trying to keep Marshall in check!

The importance of this one isn’t lost on the Bears; they only hold a one-game buffer over the Packers, who will travel to Detroit in Week 11 well rested from the bye this week, and knowing that Lions are yet to win a divisional clash this year.

The Bears defense is playing at a simply phenomenal level this year, simply destroying opposing game plans with ruthless efficiency. While  the Texans game plan will a lot more advanced than last week’s opponents, the Titans, the Bears have the ability to stand resolute and maintain the standard that they have set for themselves.

While we rate the Texans highly, we like the Bears to sneak in at home, currently paying $1.81 in the H2H market.

Click here to see our Texans v Bears market.

CAN THE SAINTS BURST THE FALCON BUBBLE?

The Falcons are now 8-0, a quite remarkable start to the season from a team that nobody expected to feature amongst the Super Bowl favourites. Matty Ice has been immense, and victories over the Eagles and Cowboys in the last two weeks are nothing to be sneezed at.

They are just the 15th team since the NFL went to a 16-game schedule in 1978 to start 8-0, yet they’re still receiving criticism. They haven’t had to face the stiffest competition, having played teams with a combined winning percentage of .369, and they’ve occasionally struggled – but 8-0 is an okay place to be even if you are still attracting the doubters!

After a horrific start, the Saints are slowly starting to hit their straps, but it may well be too little too late for Drew Brees and his team regardless of the result here. They will be relishing the opportunity to play a big divisional rival in front of their home fans again after their big MNF win over Philadelphia took them to within a game of the Bucs and 2nd place in the division (where the Falcons sit a massive 4 games clear!)

These sides play each other twice within the next month, and winning both games is absolutely crucial for the Saints if they are to try and cling to a Playoff dream. The Saints have won 3 of the 4 games between these sides in the last two seasons, and 2 of them have ended up in Overtime – don’t be surprised if it happens again here!

Statistics don’t lie, and the Saints have the worst defense in the whole league, giving up 472 yards per game, but they are slowly turning it around and this game represents a massive chance for them to show how much they have improved since the season’s opening month.

These teams really do despise each other, and look for Brees to try and embarrass Atlanta through the air; despite their respective divisional positions the Saints are actually gaining 10 more yards per game than their opponents, and 27 yards per game in the air.

Many have tipped it throughout the opening 9 weeks, but we really do think that the Saints will finally burst the Falcons bubble. With a relatively easy draw schedule to come, there is no reason why the Falcons can’t seriously challenge at the pointy end of the season and win the conference, but the Saints need this more than them.

We like New Orleans at the line (currently +1.0 @ $2.14) in this one.

Click here to see our Falcons v Saints market

SUPERBOWL FUTURES MARKET – THE WEEK’S MOVEMENT

The Texans remain outright top of the Super Bowl market following an easy win over Buffalo last week, and still represent great value at $6. They are 7-1, and have really put the runs on the board when needed.

New England, the next favourites, have not been as good as Houston, but we know what they are capable of. There aren’t many teams that could be 5-3, have a bye, and still shorten due to weight of investment, but that’s exactly what the Pats have done, into $6.75. The 49ers are on $8 and are closely followed by the unbeaten Falcons and Packers at $9. The Broncos, at $9.50, round out the top six chances and the single figure odds.

There is still some great value to be found outside the top 6, and none more so than the two sides at $11, Chicago & New York. The Bears were super impressive offensively against Tennessee, piling on 51 points, and seem under the odds at $11 following their 7-1 start. Likewise, last year’s champion Giants have drifted to $11, but they were defeated by a very impressive Pittsburgh side. The Steelers are at $15, with Baltimore ($23) and San Diego ($34) rounding out the other realistic chances – and we are being a little generous grouping the Chargers in with that mix.

Special mention to Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts, who have gone into a positive win/loss ratio and come in from $201 to $81 – they won’t win the Lombardi, but there aren’t many who would have thought they would find themselves in front of New Orleans ($101) in the Super Bowl betting heading into week 10!

Click here to see our Super Bowl market.

Make sure you tune in Betstars & Stripes from 8pm every Sunday evening on www.sen.com.au or 1116 SEN (AM) – a brand new show hosted by Ed Wyatt, Betstar’s Alan Eskander and punting legend Doctor Turf! The boys are giving away your choice of an NFL or NBA Game Pass every week with their Who Am I competition.

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